A-shares expected to increase in the second half of the year, will “Xiao Kang Niu” come?

2020-07-01 00: 10 Source:China Economic Times

Our reporter Zhang Wei

2020 In the first half of the year, the global stock market fluctuated sharply due to the sudden epidemic. In contrast, A shares have increased risk resilience and performed better in major global stock indexes. As of June 29, the Shanghai Stock Index This year has fallen by 2.90%, Shenzhen Component Index, SME Index and GEM Refers to the rise 00001.67%, 18. 58%, 31.95% . Among them, the GEM Bulls Global, outperformed the US Nasdaq index 20 percentage points.

In the first half of the year, A-shares were “unevenly warm” and small and medium-sized stocks represented by technology stocks performed strongly. The small and medium board index and the GEM index 2019 rose respectively 41. 03%, 43. 73%, the big outperform is 22.30% The Shanghai Stock Index. SME and GEM 2020 years continue to be significantly stronger than the main board, frequently hit a new high in the stage, resulting in a certain amount of money The effect has a greater attraction to off-exchange funds. Although the trend of the main board is far behind that of the ChiNext, the Shanghai Composite Index fell slightly, but the stock prices of a batch of core assets continued to lead, and some hit record highs.

The first half of the rise in the medical and medical sectors

By industry, the sectors with the highest growth in the first half of the year were medicine, medical, electronics, food and beverage, computers, electrical equipment, leisure services, etc.; the declines were in banks, non-banking finance, real estate, transportation, Steel, etc. Due to the outbreak, the medical and medical sector was the strongest in the first half of the year. As of June 29, Inco Medical, Weiming Pharmaceutical, Aoxiang Pharmaceutical and Zhende Medical have risen more than 200% this year. Individual stocks rose to the top. Hengrui Medicine, hailed as the “Brother of Medicine” hit another record high, with an increase of 20%about.

2019 The strong liquor stocks in the year continued to attract investors’ attention in the first half of this year. Wuliangye and Shanxi Fenjiu have hit record highs, and alcoholic liquor has risen more than 160% since the second quarter. In addition, consumer stocks such as Keming Noodle Industry, Haitian Flavor Industry, Qianhe Flavor Industry, Yanjin Shop, and Taste Food increased significantly. Although some companies were hit by the epidemic, their first quarter results fell sharply or lost money, but market expectations for recovery after the epidemic were better, and the stock price was very strong. For example, China Tax Free, which operates a tax-free business, suffered a loss in the first quarter, but its stock price rose sharply in the first half of the year 50%.

Driven by the increase in the proportion of A shares included in the international index factor, foreign investors continue to show a higher willingness to invest in A shares. As of June 29, Northbound funds The total net inflow has exceeded 115495 100 million yuan since this year. In addition to white horse stocks, northbound funds are also stepping up the layout of technology stocks. Taking June as an example, BOE A, Luxeon Precision, Ningde Times, Mindray Medical and other technology stocks are the focus of northbound capital increase positions.

Domestic institutions are cautiously optimistic about A shares in the second half of the year

The overseas epidemic situation is still serious, which brings uncertainty to the global economy. However, many domestic institutions are cautiously optimistic about A shares in the second half of the year. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that the upward trend of A-share fundamentals in the second half of the year is expected to be confirmed. The new cycle is expected to start fermentation in stages, and at least one wave of “very bullish” rebounds can be expected. China Merchants Securities believes that the A-share earnings will re-enter the upward cycle after experiencing a deep decline in the first quarter, and the performance will be repaired steadily and achieve quarter-by-quarter improvement. It is expected 2020 A-share earnings growth will show a “V” trend. CITIC Securities said that A-shares will open the mid-term upward “small well-being” in the second half of the year. Policy-driven fundamentals will be repaired. The attractiveness of A-shares in the global configuration will increase. Loose macro liquidity will be transmitted to the stock market. Three factors will jointly drive A-shares up. . It is expected that in the third quarter of the third quarter, the A-share market will start a trend that continues for several months and is a healthy, stable and sustainable slow bull market.

Investors form a more consistent view that if A shares go bullish, it is more likely that core assets will go first. Should pay attention to the changes in the performance of core assets, find the right time to buy and obtain the benefits of long-term investment. Societe Generale’s medium-term strategy will say that it is optimistic about the long-term and comprehensive opportunities in the A-share market, but it is cautious about the short-term market. The A-share market and the Hong Kong stock market may be rugged in the short term, but in the long run, core assets will lead historic opportunities, and we must actively select the best core assets.

Based on comprehensive market analysis, the factors expected to improve for A-shares in the second half of the year include: First, the reform of the GEM registration system. The GEM reform has started, and the first batch of new shares issued under the registration system is expected to be born in August. The reformed GEM positioning aims at “three innovations and four innovations”: adapting to the development of the general trend of relying more on innovation, creativity and creativity, mainly serving growing innovative entrepreneurial enterprises, and supporting traditional industries and new technologies, new industries, new formats, The new model is deeply integrated. This will drive the improvement of the quality of A-share listed companies and enhance investors’ enthusiasm for participation. GEM is still expected to become a hot spot for A-share investment and win in the structural market in the second half of the year.

Second, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is “lightly launched.” The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be in July 22 Japan revised the compilation plan for the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, removed risk warning stocks, extended the time for new stocks to be included in the index, and included in the listed securities of the Science and Technology Board. This is conducive to the Shanghai Stock Index to more objectively and truly reflect the overall performance of Shanghai-listed companies, to get rid of 10 The embarrassment of “zero gain” in the year brought hope. According to the new preparation plan, historical backtracking simulations were conducted, and some securities firms calculated that the current index of the new Shanghai Stock Exchange Index is around 4000. Another brokerage predicts that the New Economy Company is expected to bring a bull market to the Shanghai Stock Index.

Third, the restoration of economic fundamentals after the epidemic. China took the lead in better controlling the epidemic, and the economic data gradually improved. In May, the profits achieved by industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide changed from a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% in April to an increase of 6.0%, marking the first positive increase this year. In June, China Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) was 30.9%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing business activity index is 54. 4%, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, and rebounded for four consecutive months. According to the Central Bank in June 28 According to the news, the People’s Bank of China Monetary Policy Committee 2020 held in the second quarter of the year that the new coronary pneumonia epidemic had an overall impact on China’s economy. Controllable, China’s economic growth remains resilient, and the long-term fundamentals have not changed. From this, investors can expect that with the improvement of economic fundamentals in the second half of the year, the performance of listed companies will be restored, which will support A-shares.Return to Sohu for more

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